Labour force projections
Labour force projections aim to estimate the potential evolution of labour market participation and assess its implications for the sustainability of the employment system.
The objective is to understand whether, in the context of a projected ageing and decline in the population, the labour force will be able to meet demand over the next 25 years. Projections of the active population are available for Italy at national level, as well as at a territorial level down to the four main geographical divisions (NUTS1: North-West, North-East, Centre, South and Islands). The projections are based on 1 January 2025 and cover the period from 2025 to 2050.
The methodology used to produce the projections is available at this link (in italian).
Glossary
Active population: includes individuals who are part of the labour force, that is, those classified as employed or actively seeking employment.
Activity rate: the ratio between individuals in the labour force and the corresponding reference population.
Deterministic demographic projection: an estimate of the future development of a population, summarized in a single series of values derived from one set of demographic assumptions, without providing any measure of the uncertainty usually associated with the results.
Inactive population: includes individuals who are not part of the labour force, that is, those who are neither employed nor actively seeking employment.